Critical Slowing Down and Regime Shifts: Assessing Early-Warning Indicators of Climate-Driven Transitions

As climate changes, ecological and socio-economic systems will become increasingly vulnerable, and the likelihood of experiencing abrupt and irreversible changes (known as tipping points) will increase. Tipping points are the points of no return in terms of switching between different regimes. For example, if there are small ecological changes in an ecosystem (e.g., loss of biodiversity), they can lead to a disproportionately large response from the ecosystem (e.g., shifting from one ecosystem form to another). One of the most important aspects of climate adaptation science is understanding how these transitions occur; how to identify early-warning signals to detect them; and how to improve the resilience of socio-environmental systems to these transitions. The current study investigates several of the dynamics and factors that are involved in climate-induced tipping points, including: feedback loops; biodiversity loss; and biogeochemical stressors, as well as early-warning indicators, such as: critical slowing down; increased variance; spatial correlation; and flickering. Improved long-term monitoring and increased opportunities for continued modelling of these early-warning signals may improve our ability to anticipate climate-related tipping points. The discussion also encompasses socio-environmental resilience, noting anticipatory, autonomous, and transformative adaptations and governance models which would support society to cope with uncertainty. We must incorporate tipping-point science into policies to address ecological collapse and reduce cascading social risks. Resilience in integrated human nature systems is to be developed through coordinated governance, community involvement, ecological restoration and flexible adaptation strategies and especially as climate pressures intensify and the risk of crossing irreversible thresholds increases, the paper concludes.